Tuesday, September 26, 2017

关于房子风水的事

有些房子由于条件限制,会存在各种风水上的禁忌,而这样的房子并不适宜居住,如果一定要居住其中,很容易招来不好的运势,该如何化解呢?下面一起看看专家的建议。(注意了,不一定都适合于加拿大的房子布局。)

一、长期住在地下室

不少打工者初期创业时,由于经济窘迫只能借宿地下室。假如长期住在地下室,时间超过一年,越过越穷的房子风水对你来说就产生作用了。除了经济上入不敷出外,你很可能恋爱情感也饱受影响。

曾经考察过一位名人的别墅,其地下室被装潢得金壁辉煌,干吗用呢?呵呵,一是女主人摆放几百双漂亮的鞋子。二是几百套豪华的衣服,还有大块场地是供其宝贝孩子玩耍用。唉,难怪这位名人自打住进这别墅以来,就没有什么好运过。

建议:长期住在地下室的朋友赶紧搬出,早日见到阳光,好运会回到你身边的。

二、白虎压过青龙的房子

一些房子的右边是很高的楼,或者是很高的高压塔、烟囱甚至是过街天桥(对于一、二层住宅来说),而左边则相应楼房低矮。那么,住在这样的房子里,你就会真正感受到风水的威力了。

或许你会健康不佳,或许你财运不开,或许你事业不顺甚至官司缠身。总而言之,很大原因与风水有关。

建议:假如已经住在了这样的房子里,建议应当立即进行化解,最主要的是请镇宅吉祥物,比如泰山石敢当或者龙生九子中的一子。

三、卫生间与厨房门对门
不知为何,开发商经常将房子建成卫生间与厨房门对门的格式。这种让“上水”直接通“下水”的格局,应验了那句话“酒肉穿肠过,财富留不住”,明显是越过越穷的风水。

建议:这样的房子主人赶紧改厨房或者卫生间的门,假如无奈不能改,那么至少在厨房门上挂平安瓶或者中国结,在卫生间门上挂门帘或摆放铜马等。

四、大门对窗

假如是自家大门一开,就能望见窗户,那漏财格式已经诞生。许多所谓的南北通透的高层板楼都是这种格局。

建议:最好的方法是在大门内做玄关,把这越过越穷的屋宅风水改了。

五、大门直对别家门

很多住宅的大门都是两两相对,即是这家大门与另一家大门相对。如此,越过越穷的屋宅风水很可能就产生了。如果对门那家的气场、属相、五行等恰好与你家的气场、属相、五行相克,那么倒霉的肯定是你啦。

对门要充分利用大门外的场所,在大门外摆放鞋架、杂务,那么更有可能因此对你的房子形成凶煞,你能走好运才怪呢。假如对方明白这个道理,“不经意”间将一面八卦镜挂在门上、直对你房子,那么,后果也就不用多说了。

建议:房子有这种格局的朋友,需要在自家门框上挂中国结,同时在门内做玄关或挂门帘为宜。

Friday, September 15, 2017

最新调查,中国人购买加拿大房产数量暴增



根据中国最大房地产门户居外网的数据,中国买家对加拿大房地产的投资兴趣有赠不减,今年上半年买家数量与去年相比骤增30%。

无论是安省和加拿大的外国买家税政策,还是中国政府严厉打击资本外流的手段都没能阻挡,中产阶级在海外购买房产的热情。
居外网BC省副总裁Byron Burley表示,人们不再担心中国人会导致本地的房价升高,但是中国买家的兴致却丝毫不减。
中国买家仍然对加拿大趋之若鹜,中国留学生数量的激增,中国投资者依然十分看好加拿大市场,为了寻求更好生活的中国人依然把加拿大作为首选的目的地。
2017年上半年最受中国买家青睐的加拿大城市是多伦多、蒙特利尔、温哥华、渥太华和维多利亚。

据居外网的数据,中国买家对加拿大投资兴趣高于其他国家,2016年一年增加了8.7%。但中国买家的首选仍然是美国和澳大利亚
居外网对买家的调查发现,74.9%购买房屋是自用,32.3%用来投资,23.7%是为了教育,被调者可以选择多个选项。
                                                                                                                            房佳佳综合编译: Yang

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

最新加拿大统计局---全国家庭收入统计报告

在加拿大统计局公布的最新收入统计数据中,Alberta省人中位数收入自2005年以来上涨了24%,Alberta省在收入增长方面在2015年全加国处于第三名。

2015年,阿省家庭中位数收入为93,835元,仍然高于全国人均中位数收入 $70,336。收入增长排名分别如下
Wood Buffalo (35.2%),  
Camrose (+29.9%), 
Wetaskiwin (+27.3%), 
Okotoks (+27.0%), 
Edmonton (+26.6%), 
Cold Lake (+23.0%) 
Calgary (+22.7%). 

Sylvan Lake (+7.8%) 增长最慢,但是人口增长却排到第二名了,那十年之间增长了50%。(说明,人家去那里不是赚钱的,是度假养老的。)



2005年全国平均收入为$63,457, 2015年为$70,336. 增长了10.8%。同时,2015年全国近2/3的家庭参加RRSP, RPP, TFSA储蓄。

具体报告如下,请详读。

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/170913/dq170913a-eng.pdf

Household income in Canada: Key results from the 2016 Census



Released: 2017-09-13 Statistics Canada 

The median total income of Canadian households rose from $63,457 in 2005 to $70,336 in 2015, a 10.8% increase.
Today, Statistics Canada is releasing data from the 2016 Census on the incomes of Canadians. This release presents incomes of Canadians as measured in 2015, and looks at trends over the 2005-to-2015 period, a decade of significant income growth and economic change.
An important factor in the economic story of Canada over the decade was high resource prices that drew investment and people to Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador, boosted the construction sector, and more generally filtered through the economy as a whole.
This boom in the resource sector coincided with a decline in the manufacturing sector, with fewer jobs in this sector in 2015 than 2005. The bulk of these manufacturing job losses were in Ontario and Quebec.
This census release paints a picture of the income of Canadians in 2015 before the effects of the oil price slowdown in 2015 and 2016 were fully felt.
Led by growth in resource-rich provinces, median income rose 10.8% in Canada from 2005 to 2015, compared with 9.2% growth in the previous decade and a decline of 1.8% the decade before that.
This growth was not distributed evenly across Canada. Resource-based provinces and regions had the highest income growth, led by Nunavut, and Saskatchewan. Median income growth was slowest in Ontario and Quebec, the two provinces with the largest populations and significant manufacturing activity.
The low income rate was relatively stable over the last decade, rising marginally from 14.0% in 2005 to 14.2% in 2015. There were regional variations over the decade. The number of persons in low income declined in Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador, while the number increased in Ontario. There were also variations across age groups with a smaller proportion of young children living in households with low income and a larger proportion of seniors.
Almost two-thirds of Canadian households contributed to an RRSPRPP or TFSA in 2015. Of these households, more than half contributed to only one plan, while one-third contributed to two plans and 14% contributed to all three.
In 2015, 96% of Canadian couples had both spouses reporting income, up significantly from about two-thirds in the mid-1970s.
One-third of couples had fairly equal incomes in 2015 compared with about one-fifth of couples 30 years earlier.

Provincial median income growth reflects employment trends in resources and manufacturing

According to the Labour Force Survey, two industrial sectors experienced declines in employment from 2005 to 2015: manufacturing (-22%) and agriculture (-14%). Over the same period, employment in the health care sector rose over 30% as did employment in construction and the professional, scientific and technical services sector, sectors associated with economic expansion. These changes in the economy are reflected in changes to median household income.
Nunavut (+36.7%) and Saskatchewan (+36.5%) had the highest growth in median incomes over the past decade. Newfoundland and Labrador, the Northwest Territories, Alberta, and Manitoba also saw median incomes grow by more than 20% over the decade.
The decline in manufacturing jobs in Quebec and Ontario was reflected in the lower growth of median incomes in those two provinces. Quebec (+8.9%) and Ontario (+3.8%) were the provinces with the lowest growth rates.
The metropolitan areas within these regions also tended to follow these provincial/territorial patterns. For example, almost every metropolitan area in Ontario saw income growth below the national average, while almost every metropolitan area on the Prairies had income growth above the national average.
The following sections look at regions across the country and provide further detail on the growth in median household income for provinces and metropolitan areas.

Prairie provinces boom

Earlier results from the 2016 Census show that the population is moving west. While economic opportunities in the West underlie this trend, median income growth does not necessarily follow the growth in the number of households and in the West was more related to developments in the resource (oil) and construction sectors.
Over the decade, the Prairie provinces had the highest growth in both the number of households and household median income in Canada. Even within the Prairie provinces, however, there were differences. For example, the growth in the number of households was faster in Alberta (+21.6%) than Saskatchewan (+11.7%), yet the median income growth in Saskatchewan outpaced that of Alberta.
The median household income in Manitoba was $68,147 in 2015, ranking eighth among the provinces and territories. Despite a 20.3% increase in median income since 2005, roughly twice the national growth rate, Manitoba slipped one rank from seventh in 2005 because other regions had even stronger growth.
Winkler (+24.2%) and Brandon (+23.3%) had the highest median income growth among the metropolitan areas in Manitoba. The income growth was slower in Steinbach (+16.6%), despite having the fastest growth in the number of households at 41.8%. In Winnipeg, the largest city in Manitoba, median incomes grew 16.6%, somewhat below the provincial growth rate.
Saskatchewan (+36.5%) had the highest median income growth among the provinces, and was second highest nationally following Nunavut (+36.7%). On the strength of this income growth, Saskatchewan improved its provincial/territorial ranking from eighth to fifth over the decade.
Although Moose Jaw (+26.4%) had the slowest income growth among Saskatchewan metropolitan areas, it was faster than all but 17 of the 152 metropolitan areas in Canada. Saskatchewan was also home to the metropolitan area with the highest growth in median income in Canada (Yorkton), up 40.5% from 2005. The number of households in Moose Jaw and Yorkton grew by about 6.5% over this period—among the slowest growing metropolitan areas in Saskatchewan.
Alberta ($93,835) had the third-highest median income among the provinces and territories in 2015, down from second place in 2005. Alberta was the fifth-fastest growing province/territory in Canada at 24.0%.
Within Alberta, median total income rose the fastest in 
Wood Buffalo (35.2%),  
Camrose (+29.9%), 
Wetaskiwin (+27.3%), 
Okotoks (+27.0%), 
Edmonton (+26.6%), 
Cold Lake (+23.0%) 
Calgary (+22.7%). 
While Sylvan Lake had the slowest growth in median incomes of any Alberta metropolitan area (+7.8%), it had the second-largest increase in the number of households (+50.5%).

Atlantic provinces and Quebec had the lowest median incomes

The Atlantic provinces and Quebec had the lowest median incomes in Canada in both 2005 and 2015. However, investments in the resource sector during this time led to higher incomes in Newfoundland and Labrador (+28.9%), resulting in the third-fastest income growth among the provinces and territories. This increase lifted Newfoundland and Labrador from the lowest median income in the Atlantic/Quebec region to the highest over the course of 10 years.
Every metropolitan area in Newfoundland and Labrador posted income growth above 12% over the decade. The growth was highest in Bay Roberts (+33.1%) and St. John's (+27.5%), followed by Corner Brook (+15.7%), Grand Falls-Windsor (+14.5%), and Gander (+12.4%). Among metropolitan areas in the rest of Atlantic Canada, only the median income in Miramichi, New Brunswick (+14.3%), grew at a faster pace than the slowest-growing Newfoundland and Labrador metropolitan area.
New Brunswick ($59,347) had the lowest median income in Canada in 2015, followed by Quebec ($59,822). Median household income grew by 8.9% in Quebec from 2005, the second-slowest provincial/territorial growth rate in Canada over the decade. Montréal, the largest city in the province, had a median total income of $61,790 in 2015, up 8.8% from 2005.
Despite a low median income growth rate in Quebec, several metropolitan areas in resource rich areas had relatively high income growth. Median incomes in Rouyn-Noranda (+20.4%), Val D'or (+18.0%) and Sept-Îles (+13.4%) all grew faster than 10%, as did those in Québec (+11.1%). Conversely, median incomes were 4.1% lower in Baie-Comeau.
In the Eastern Townships, Granby (+19.1%) and Cowansville (+16.0%) had among the highest growth in the number of households within the province. However, median income growth in Granby (+3.8%) and Cowansville (+1.8%) were well below the Quebec average of 8.9%. Both Granby and Cowansville had higher-than-average growth in the number of people over the age of 65 and they also had relatively high levels of manufacturing.

The territories: Strong income growth

Median household income rose significantly in all three territories. The overall median income growth rate of the territories was 22.4%, second only to the growth seen on the Prairies (+25.7%).
Nunavut led the country with a median income growth of 36.7%. The growth in Nunavut reflected more workers in the resource sector and government sector over the decade.
The Northwest Territories had the second-highest median income growth in the North at 24.5%, followed by Yukon (+18.9%).
British Columbia just above the national growth rate

The median household income in British Columbia was $69,995 in 2015, seventh among the provinces and territories, down from sixth in 2005. Median incomes increased 12.2% from 2005, 1.4 percentage points above the Canadian average, making British Columbia the eighth-fastest growing region over the decade. Fewer manufacturing and agricultural jobs coincided with employment increases in utilities, health care and social assistance, and forestry and construction sectors.
Every metropolitan area in British Columbia experienced some growth in their median income. Median income growth ranged from 2% or less in Powell River, Port Alberni and Quesnel to over 20% in Cranbrook (+21.8%), Prince Rupert (+23.2%), Terrace (+24.6%), Fort St. John (+27.5%) and Dawson Creek (+31.6%). Vancouver, with a median income of $72,662 in 2015, experienced an income growth rate of 11.2% since 2005, somewhat below the provincial rate.

Almost two-thirds of households used a tax-assisted savings option

With an aging population and longer life expectancies, the need to save for retirement is high on many people's minds. Canadians use a variety of methods to save for their retirement, including employer sponsored Registered Pension Plans (RPPs), or tax-sheltered savings in either Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs), or Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs). In 2015, almost two-thirds (65.2%) of Canada's 14 million households contributed to one of the three major types of registered savings accounts. Just over 30% of households contributed to more than one account, and 9.3% contributed to all three.
Households with lower income were more likely to contribute to TFSAs than to RRSPs or RPPs, and contribution rates generally increased with income. Among households with after-tax income below $80,000, a larger proportion contributed to TFSAs (33.8%) than to RRSPs (20.1%) or RPPs (17.6%). However, households with higher income were generally more likely to contribute regardless of the type of account.

People living in low-income households

Low income relatively stable from 2005 to 2015

This Census release uses the After Tax Low Income Measure (LIM-AT). The concept underlying the LIM-AT is that a household has low income if its income is less than half of the median income of all households.
The low-income rate was relatively stable over the decade, edging up from 14.0% in 2005 to 14.2% in 2015. While the rate was relatively stable, some groups and regions saw an increase in low income, while others had fewer low-income households.

Fewer children living in low income, more low income seniors

Younger Canadians were more likely to live in low income than adults in 2015. Among children 17 years of age and younger, the low income rate was 17.0% compared with 13.4% for Canadian adults.
A smaller proportion of children aged 5 or younger were living in low income households in 2015, as the rate decreased from 18.8% to 17.8% over the decade, while it was unchanged for children 6 to 15 years of age at 17.0%. However, a larger proportion of Canadians 65 years of age or older were in low income in 2015 compared with 2005. The rate of senior Canadians in low income rose from 12.0% in 2005 to 14.5% by 2015. While the increase was particularly strong for senior men, overall, senior women were still more likely to be in low income in 2015.

Low income down sharply in Newfoundland and Labrador and Saskatchewan

From 2005 to 2015, low income fell sharply in Newfoundland and Labrador (from 20.0% to 15.4%) and Saskatchewan (from 16.8% to 12.8%). In addition, a smaller share of the population was living in low income in Alberta and Quebec. In Ontario however, the low-income rate rose from 12.9% to 14.4%.
With its decline in low income, Saskatchewan moved from having the fourth-highest low-income rate among provinces in 2005 to having the second-lowest rate in 2015, just behind Alberta (9.3%). Newfoundland and Labrador moved from the highest rate in 2005 to fifth highest in 2015, leaving Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island with the highest incidences of low income in Canada.

Low-income rates fell fastest in metropolitan areas related to the resource boom and rose fastest in manufacturing intensive Ontario metropolitan areas

Changes in low income for metropolitan areas also reflected sectoral boom and bust. The largest declines in low income occurred in metropolitan areas in resource-rich areas of the country. The low-income rate in St. John's fell from 16.0% in 2005 to 12.0% in 2015, while in Saskatoon it fell from 15.3% to 11.7%. The metropolitan areas with the largest increases in low income were in Ontario, where every large metropolitan area saw an increase in their low income rate, led by London (from 13.3% to 17.0%) and Windsor (from 14.0% to 17.5%).
For additional information on the incidence of low income for children, see the Census in Brief article "Children Living in Low Income Households."

Incomes of couples: Nearly one-third of all couples had fairly equal incomes

There were 8.2 million married or common-law couples in Canada in 2016. Among the vast majority of these couples (95.9%), each partner received some form of income in 2015, up significantly from about two-thirds of couples in the mid-1970s. Although one partner often received substantially more than the other, the incomes of nearly one-third (32.0%) of couples were fairly equal (both earning from 40% to 60% of the couple's total income). This was up from 30 years ago, when 20.6% of couples had fairly equal incomes.
Many factors have contributed to this advance, led by the increased labour force participation of women. Combined with a narrowing of the gender wage gap, women now contribute a larger portion of the couple's combined income.
Partners also receive income from sources such as government transfers, which can account for an important portion of a couple's income, particularly for seniors and couples with children. Changes to transfer programs, as well as demographic shifts such as population aging, have also contributed to a change in the relative split in income between partners.

Men are more likely to be the higher income recipient

While partner's incomes were fairly equal in one-third of couples, in 50.7% of couples a male had relatively higher income while in 17.3% a female had relatively higher income.
This too, has changed over time. In 1985, a man had relatively higher income in 71.3% of couples compared with 8.0% for women.
The combined median total income of couples was $87,688 in 2015. The higher income partner had a median income of $59,121, more than double that of the lower income partner ($25,015).

Same-sex couples have higher incomes

Median incomes were higher in same-sex couples than in opposite-sex couples, in part because a greater proportion of same-sex couples are in their prime working years. Female same-sex couples had a median total income of $92,857 in 2015, while male same-sex couples had a median income of $100,707—the highest among all couple types. In fact, over 12% of male same-sex couples had incomes over $200,000, compared with 7.5% of female same-sex couples and 8.4% of opposite-sex couples.
Lower income partners in same-sex couples also had higher median incomes than their opposite sex counterparts. The median income of lower income partners was $31,192 in male same-sex couples and $30,942 in female same-sex couples compared with $24,969 in opposite-sex couples.
In 2015, a greater proportion of female same-sex couples (38.4%) had fairly equal incomes compared with opposite-sex (32.0%) or male same-sex couples (33.2%).


Monday, September 11, 2017

BUYING A HOME: STEP BY STEP

Buying a home is a momentous occasion in anyone’s life. Thankfully, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. has some suggestions that can help you navigate the ins and outs of the home-buying process.
 1. Determining if home ownership is right for you
Recognize the real costs of homeownership
  • Upfront costs (e.g., down payment, closing costs, taxes)
  • Ongoing costs (e.g., mortgage payments, property taxes, insurance, utilities, condo fees, routine maintenance)
  • Major repairs (e.g., roof replacement, foundation repair)
Renting vs. buying
  • There are benefits and drawbacks to both renting and owning a home – make sure you understand them before you decide which option is right for you
2. Determining if you are financially ready to own a home
Calculate how much you are spending on a monthly basis
  • Calculate how much you can afford to spend on housing each month without putting your financial health at risk
  • Your monthly housing costs should be no more than 32 per cent of your average gross monthly income
  • Your monthly debt load should be no more than 40 per cent of your average gross monthly income
Determine the upfront costs
  • Have you saved enough money to cover a down payment, home inspection and appraisal, insurance costs, land registration fees, prepaid property taxes or utility bills, legal or notary fees, potential repairs and renovations, moving costs, and GST?
3. Financing your home
Get pre-approved for a mortgage
  • This lets you know how much you can afford, your interest rate and what your monthly mortgage payments will be
You will need the following to qualify for a mortgage
  • Contact information for your employer
  • Proof of address
  • Government-issued photo ID
  • Proof of income
  • Proof of down payment (amount and source)
  • Proof of savings and investments
  • Details of current debts
Know your credit score
  • Lenders and brokers will look at your credit history before deciding whether to approve you
Mortgage loan insurance
  • Required if your down payment is less than 20 per cent of a home’s purchase price
4. Finding the right home
What do you want or need in a home?
  • Location
  • Size
  • Special features
  • Lifestyle
Forms of homeownership
  • Freehold
  • Condominium (strata)
  • Leasehold
  • Co-operatives
Start your search
  • Via word of mouth, social media, newspaper and real estate magazines, visits to new housing developments, real estate websites, “for sale” signs, and/or a REALTOR®
Homebuying professionals that can help
  • REALTORS®
  • Insurance brokers
  • Home inspectors
  • Appraisers
  • Land surveyors
  • Builders or contractors
  • Lenders or mortgage brokers
  • Lawyers or notaries
5. Making an offer and closing the deal
Your offer should include
  • Your legal name, the seller’s name and the address of the property
  • Purchase price
  • Amount of your deposit
  • Any items you want included in the purchase
  • Closing date
  • Request for a current land survey
  • Date the offer expires
  • Any other conditions
You will need the following information to finalize the details of your mortgage
  • Legal description of the property
  • Building specifications
  • REALTOR.ca listing
  • Property tax assessment
  • Appraisal
  • Home inspection report
  • Land survey
  • Heating and utility costs
  • Condo fees
  • Signed offer to purchase
Closing day
  • Take legal possession of your new home
6. Maintaining your home and protecting your investment
Make your mortgage payments on time
  • You can make your payments weekly, bi-weekly or monthly
  • Late or missed payments can lead to penalties, and negatively impact your credit rating
Plan for the costs of operating a home
  • Maintenance and repair costs, security monitoring, snow removal,
    gardening, etc.
Live within your budget
  • If you regularly spend more than you earn, find ways to cut your spending or increase your earnings
Save for emergencies
  • Set aside an emergency fund of roughly five per cent of your income every year to deal with unexpected expenses

Author is Tyler Difley

Thursday, September 7, 2017

加拿大央行再次加息至1% ,对我们有什么影响?


加拿大央行周三宣布,将基准利率上调0.25个百分点,利率已从0.75%升至1%。央行在声明中说,据最新的经济统计数据,加国第二季度经济创下4.5%的惊人增长,就业市场稳固和薪资增长,拉动了消费的提高,商业投资与出口等关键领域也有增长,更有税收政策和住房金融政策的调整,房地产市场也在慢慢降温,这些央行所说的经济的强劲表现扩展到更广泛领域,经济增长表现为可自我持续。

央行预计下半年经济增速将会放缓,但国内生产总值的水平会高于预期水平,不过薪水与物价的上涨压力仍然低于历史走势和发达国家正常水平。

央行加息消息一出,加元汇率应声上涨,加元兑美元汇率升1美分,至82美分。本次加息让专家大跌眼镜,此前金融市场预测周三加息的机率是50%,不少分析师预测央行会等到10月份才第二次加息。因为此前的整个8月份,央行官员没有作任何重要讲话,也没有对9月份加息作出任何暗示。

此次加息后至1%的利率水平相当于回到2015年1月的央行利率,此次加息将使加拿大的利率走向正常化,同时意味着央行的利率政策已调头,经济越来越强劲,不再需要低利率的刺激,撒钱和低利率时代在加拿大已经终结。同时,更有加拿大国家银行的经济师更呼吁央行在今年底之前第三次加息。



央行下一次议息日是10月25日,届时央行将发布季度经济报告来决定是否会第三次加息。

央行加息后对房地产的影响

对于想买自住房的买家来说,此次加息无疑是一个好机会,因为两次加息的蝴蝶效应,会使房地产价格持续走低,价格走低将维持多长时间,低到何种程度,谁都无法预估,唯一可以预测的就是,有购房意愿者现在出手仍不失为一个好时机。


Wednesday, September 6, 2017

加拿大或进一步收紧房贷 需求缩水10%、房价跌4%



道明银行(TD Bank)本周一(8月28日)发布了最新市场报告《走向软着陆》(Navigating a Soft Landing)。报告指出,加拿大政府正在酝酿中的新房贷政策可能将房地产市场的需求减少5%到10%。

无保险按揭再缩紧 影响需求和房价
目前,由联邦政府担保的按揭贷款需要进行收入压力测试。如果贷款者的首付低至仅5%,必须按照央行5年期利率(目前为4.84%)来审批按揭贷款。

报告提到金融机构监管办公室(OSFI)的一项建议,该机构正考虑进一步紧缩无保险房贷政策,无保险房贷指那些首付至少在20%的房屋贷款。这些贷款人在申请房贷按揭时,也要以比合同利率高出2%的利率来审批。

TD经济学家们预计,这一政策如果开始实施,市场将会失去5%至10%的购房需求,并且会导致2018年加拿大平均房价再下跌2%至4%。

这一政策可能会促使买家增加首付、选择较低价的房产或者直接推迟买房计划。

温哥华不排除软着陆可能
温哥华过去一年和多伦多过去四个月销售量的下降有助于纯粹卖家市场把权力平衡给买家,这可以从销售与待售比的减少体现出来。

现在买房者寄希望于利率上涨导致楼市崩盘,还未上车的首次买家可能按兵不动,因为房价可能回落到一年前疯涨之前的水平。

报告称,软着陆是可能发生的。温哥华自1990年代以来,经历了五次周期,每次房价上涨15%至20%后,很快回落10%至14%。

地产业内人士表示,从大温楼市过去40年的数据统计趋势图来看,温哥华市场大致每隔7至8年会经历一个价格调整周期,但每一轮下跌的最低点通常都会高于前一轮上涨的最高点。这一轮始自2013年的上涨,在经过2015年底至2016年上半年的急剧拉升后,现在处于这一轮周期的下半场,开始调整回归,以时间来消化已有的涨幅,换取未来上涨的空间。

联邦政策变化不断
省政府实际影响更大
在过去18个月里,联邦政府和省政府已经相继出台了一系列前所未有的政策规定。

两个重要的政策包括,2016年1月,对于房价超过50万元的房屋增加最低首付,允许金融机构将高风险贷款债券化。2016年10月,联邦政府要求贷款机构在发放贷款时,必须考虑买家的贷款承受能力。按照旧规,那些首付比例不到20%的房贷申请都必须通过压力测试。从10月17日起,无论首付比例多少,所有按揭申请都必须进行这个压力测试,压力测试的利率标准是按照加拿大央行的的五年定期房贷利率来检查贷款申请者是否具有还本付息的能力。

这两条房贷政策,是过去十年中规定的最广泛和执行最严格的规则。

联邦政府一步步推出的新政策,仅对冷却房市起到了有限的作用。据统计,上一次的政策将地产市场的需求减少了2%。相比之下,2008年实施的第一个监管政策重挫房屋销售约10%。

联邦政策的影响越来越小,在某种程度上要归因于每一轮监管变动对保险按揭影响不大,这鼓励人们从高额贷款抵押贷款(high loan-to-value mortgages)转为常规抵押贷款(conventionalmortgages)。目前,保险按揭市场的比例越来越小。要求买保险的按揭贷款在所有银行按揭业务中的比例从2008年的40%,减少到目前的20%以下,所以现在省政府的政策实际对房市的影响更大。

From Canadian Chinese Real Estate Week