Tuesday, March 24, 2015

TD Bank trims first-quarter outlook for Canadian economy

                                                                                                                                from CTV news


TORONTO -- The Canadian economy's growth will slow to a crawl in the first quarter as low oil prices take a bite out of the first quarter, but pick up in the second half of the year, TD Bank predicts.
The bank cut its growth forecast for the first quarter on Tuesday to an annual pace of 0.5 per cent compared with TD's January estimate of 1.0 per cent growth for the first quarter.


The forecast falls well short of the 1.5 per cent pace that the Bank of Canada has predicted for the first quarter.                        
"Most of these positive forces are expected to have some staying power," TD Bank wrote in its quarterly economic forecast.
"This expectation, together with the waning negative impact of weak oil prices, will likely help to take real GDP growth in Canada back up to just over two per cent by the end of this year and into 2016."


TD predicts growth in the third quarter will accelerate to a 2.2 per cent annual pace and then to a 2.4 per cent pace in the fourth quarter.
The new estimate is based on a slightly higher average price for oil this year at US$49 per barrel compared with the January outlook which used an average price of US$47.
TD is also now estimating growth this year to average 1.9 per cent, compared with its earlier forecast for 2.0 per cent. Its forecast for 2016 is unchanged at 2.2 per cent growth.
However, the bank suggest the job market will continue to struggle.


"Partly reflecting weak profit margins, businesses will likely strive to boost productivity. With gains in the labour force still likely to be constrained by an aging population, the jobless rate is likely to remain close to seven per cent over the next few years," TD said.


The Bank of Canada cut its key overnight rate target in January to 0.75 per cent, from one per cent, in a surprise move that governor Stephen Poloz described as insurance against lower oil prices.
The central bank has suggested that it expects the impact of lower oil prices on the economy to be front-end loaded, striking in the first half of this year.


The Bank of Canada's next rate announcement is expected on April 15 when it will also release its spring monetary policy report.


TD predicted the Bank of Canada will keep its key policy rate at 0.75 per cent until the fourth quarter of next year when it suggested it will rise to one per cent.

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Calgary second best place to buy a home, according to MoneySense Magazine

Looking for the best place to buy a home? You may have to move, if you’re outside the City of Calgary.

MoneySense Magazine is out with its ranking of Canada’s top neighbourhoods, looking at the top 35 cities to buy based on a number of factors including affordability, local wages, and how many years it would take to buy a home if you put every cent you earned towards paying it off.

Calgary ranks second on the list, with Glenbrook, Rosscarrock and Kingsland coming in as the top three communities to buy in.

Senior Editor Romana King co-authored the report and says affordability based on disposable income is what pushed us near the top.

“The GDP of the city, you know, prior to the oil price plummeting, the GDP was quite high,” she said.
She adds, the ranking is based on data over the past several years and doesn’t take into account the big economic hit the province took at the end of 2014.

The number one city, according to the list, is Thunder Bay, Ontario.

“I think that surprised a lot of people because I don’t think people really think that Thunder Bay is the prime spot to go and purchase an investment property, or to move to, because the homes are relatively affordable, but the reality is the numbers tell a different story,” she said.
Our neighbours to the north in Edmonton ranked 5th.

The full issue of MoneySense Magazine hits newsstands on Mar. 10, 2015

Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Downturn continues in Calgary housing market

A senior Canadian economist says fear has obviously gripped Calgary’s housing market as MLS sales dipped by more than 34 per cent in February compared with a year ago and average sale prices were off by more than four per cent.

“Oil prices have fallen and that has a lot of people worried . . . When the market turns, either for the good or bad, then it’s really hard to call the top or the bottom,” said Robin Wiebe, senior economist with the Conference Board of Canada. “Fortunes have been made and lost on bets like that.
“Once fear grips a market, as it obviously has in Calgary, calling a market bottom is difficult.”
Where the market goes from here really depends on oil prices, added Wiebe.

Mike Fotiou, associate broker with First Place Realty, said February MLS sales were the slowest for the month since 2009. Sales were 25 per cent off the five-year average and 33 per cent off the 10-year average.

February marked the first month since March 2011 in which average and median MLS sale prices were both down year-over-year.
Meanwhile, the inventory of homes for sale is more than double 2014’s numbers, and the highest level since 2009.

“This is playing out exactly like a textbook would describe a market in theory,” said Don Campbell, senior analyst with the Real Estate Investment Network. “The high listings, lack of buyers in January, reflecting in lower transactions and continued increase in listings in February. As oil confusion continues, so will this trend.

“Builders beginning to slow down, will decrease average sale price into the spring, which will then awaken a few of the more aggressive buyers.”

There were 1,217 MLS sales in February, down 34.2 per cent from February 2014, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board — the second consecutive month in which sales plunged by more than 30 per cent.

The median price was down 1.2 per cent to $420,000, while the average sale price was down 4.2 per cent to $462,294.

But CREB said the benchmark price – what it terms a typical home sold – was up 5.77 per cent from last year to $456,300.

“Everyone has different reasons for making a move and so it’s difficult to predict how buyers will react to this market,” said CREB president Corinne Lyall in a statement.
New listings rose by 8.8 per cent to 2,950 and active listings at the end of the month were up by 109.2 per cent to 5,524.

Fotiou said new listings were only two per cent above the five-year average and 3.6 per cent below the 10-year average.
“We continue to see a low level of sales activity in February,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB’s chief economist. “But one thing we have started to see shift is some of that level of listings growth has eased.

“If you look at last month, year-over-year growth was 37 per cent and it’s moved down closer to nine per cent. So even though we’ve seen that those inventory levels have risen to … levels we haven’t seen for some time, we still remain below the record highs that we saw in 2008.
“With that being said, because there is just generally more supply in the market that has put downward pressure on pricing.”

Lurie said there could be many reasons behind the slowdown in listings, including people waiting to see what will happen in the city’s real estate market.
She said expectations about the impact that lower oil prices will have on the housing market vary based on assumptions on how long the cycle will last and the resulting impact on employment and net migration.

“These differences in expectations will likely persist until there is some firm data to support assumptions about Calgary’s employment levels,” added Lurie in a statement.
Fotiou  added that 27 homes in Calgary sold for $1 million or more during the month, compared with 66 last February – down 59 per cent.

Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary HeraldMore from Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald

二月份成交量保持低水平--- Inventory climbs in Calgary’s housing market

卡尔加里二手房库存可售房源增加
二月份成交量保持低水平

二月份二手房新挂牌和2014年同月份相比仅上涨9%,而今年一月份比去年同期猛涨了37%。然而,成交量继续保持低于长线均值水平,截至今日卡尔加里二手房库存可售房源为5,474 套。

尽管目前可售房源比很长一段时间来我们看到的要高,但是2008年二月份时可售库存房源接近7000套。如果新挂牌增加量持续降低,可以缓冲供给增加的压力。

前两个月新挂牌量共为6,236套,然而新增加挂牌的价位段、产品段还是有所不同的。独立屋40万以内的新挂牌房源持续减低,公寓、连体房30万以上的新挂牌量则持续增加(这同时告诉我们什么样的房地产产品更加珍贵些)!!

对于买家来说决定购买哪个社区、什么价位、种类的房子是相当重要的,对于卖家来说挂在那个价位段也是同样重要。

二月份共售出1,217套,比2014年同期降了 34 %(新年以后是传统销售旺季),在各个产品段全面成家量下滑时,我们要看到公寓、连体房成交量降的最多。

每个买家都有他们自己的原因购买,所以很难综合预测买家们究竟会对目前的市场相对做出什么样的反应。过去买家可能等候了很久都没有看到的房子,现在上市挂牌了。如果他们想购买的话,就有可能趁低价买入。(个人观点是,很多房子价格走低会比你们期待的要少。买家期待价格低个10%然后购买,那样的价格低幅不会是一夜之间的发生的,很多社区、房源类别还是比较抗跌、保值的。同时,真正摊到你那有限的10-30%的首付比例来说,其实多等候的几个月并不一定会有多大的差别。同时但贷款谈到25-30年来说,每月的差额并没有省多少。如果你租房的话,考虑考虑每年租金的总额。anyway)。

目前市场可售房源消化率在4.5个月,因为二月份成交量降低同时新挂牌增加,导致价格上扬压力增加。大家注意了:二月份独立屋市场基准价仍然保持在516,000,比2014年同期微涨6%,比今年一月份仅仅小降 0.5%!(独立屋还是比较抗跌啊,但是如果挂牌量持续大幅增加、成交量持续降低的话可能会是另外一个故事。So far so good)

同时,连体房、公寓市场基准价分别为$354,600 、 $296,000,比一月份相比都降低了。(大家注意,从这个月份起,报告中不再提及排屋了,因为2015年3月10日起,卡尔加里房地产行业启用新的房源跟进系统)。

如果我们用市场均值来描述卡尔加里房地产市场的话,二月份比一月份微微调高0.3 %,但是比2014年同期降低 4.2 %。

当我们谈及低油价对于房地产市场的影响是,答案各有不同。经常看到的预计来源无外乎这次的价格走低将会延迟多久?对于就业率、移民迁入的影响有多大。几乎等到卡尔加里就业率新数据出炉之时,我们才可能有个答案。